Stifel Backs Flutter Despite Promo Spending Concerns, Sees 40% Upside
Flutter Entertainment has had a rough few weeks on the stock market, with its shares falling close to 8% over the past month and sitting roughly 54% lower year-to-date. A significant chunk of that pressure stems from the group’s decision to spend as much as $385 million on customer acquisition and retention incentives in the second half of this year — a plan that spooked investors when Flutter simultaneously trimmed its 2026 guidance.
Despite that turbulence, investment bank Stifel is standing firm on a bullish outlook. According to a report by Casino.org, Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial has maintained a ‘buy’ rating on Flutter’s NYSE-listed shares, attaching a $133 price target that would represent roughly 40% upside from where the stock closed on 27 August.
History Offers Some Reassurance
Stantial draws on Flutter’s own track record to argue that heavy promotional investment does not have to be a bad thing. He highlights the 2017–18 period as a useful reference point, when the company poured significant money into both Paddy Power in the UK and Sportsbet in Australia. That spending, he argues, eventually translated into meaningful returns and dominant market positions in both regions — outcomes that Flutter investors might reasonably hope to see repeated.
For a UK audience, this context matters. Paddy Power remains one of the most recognisable betting brands on these shores, and the fact that Flutter’s international estate — covering the UK, Australia and continental Europe — is sometimes overshadowed by its US FanDuel business is worth noting. Flutter’s European operations are largely mature markets that have historically generated strong, reliable revenues.
Could Spending Last Into 2027?
Flutter CFO Rob Coldrake, speaking at an industry conference earlier this month, hinted that the current level of promotional activity could carry into 2027, although he was clear this would not become a permanent feature of how the business operates. That caveat has done little to ease near-term investor nerves, with Flutter now trading broadly in line with slower-growth rival Entain and at a discount to DraftKings.
Stantial identifies several potential catalysts that could shift sentiment, including FanDuel stabilising its US market share, signs of re-acceleration in online sports betting, and possible regulatory clarity around prediction markets.
For those following Flutter’s fortunes from a UK perspective, keep an eye on our casino news section for ongoing updates, and visit our guides for broader context on the operators shaping the market.
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