Socceroos One Result Away from Historic Knockout Qualification
Australia are on the verge of reaching the World Cup knockout rounds for only the third time in their history, with a draw against Paraguay in Santa Clara enough to seal a last-32 berth as Group D runners-up.
That is according to reporting from The Guardian ahead of the match, though head coach Tony Popovic is not entertaining thoughts of settling for a point. “We know it’s in our hands, and we know what a win does for us tomorrow,” Popovic said at his pre-match press conference on the south-eastern edge of the San Francisco Bay Area.
A positive result would set up a potentially favourable last-32 fixture against one of Belgium, Iran, Egypt or New Zealand in Dallas, with seven days of rest before that tie. Even a defeat would likely leave the Socceroos safe as one of the best third-placed teams across the expanded 48-team tournament — provided the margin of loss is not heavy.
Data agency Opta ran simulations prior to the match and projected Australia would qualify in more than 93% of scenarios, a figure boosted by Scotland’s 3-0 loss to Brazil, which left the Scots third in Group C with a goal difference of -3. Australia would need to lose by four goals to drop below them in the standings.
Injury and Suspension Concerns
There are a couple of selection headaches for Popovic heading into the contest. Right back Jacob Italiano has been ruled out after picking up an adductor injury in training, though the Australian coach declined to reveal who would replace him. Meanwhile, defenders Harry Souttar and Alessandro Circati, as well as left-wingback Jordy Bos, are each on one yellow card — meaning another booking would rule them out of the next round.
“I’d rather go past the round and get a yellow card than not pass at all,” centre-back Circati said, summing up the mindset in the camp.
Paragua coach Gustavo Alfaro took a rather different tone, spending over 40 minutes with the press and framing the match as a “final” for his side. He highlighted Australia’s height and defensive organisation as key threats, warning his players they would need “patience and more patience” to find space against the well-drilled Socceroos.
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Popovic, for his part, refused to get drawn into tactical or statistical analysis. “We’re going into the game tomorrow to win,” he said simply. “I expect they’ll be doing the same.”