What the Research Says About Winning Penalty Shootouts
With the knockout rounds of World Cup 2026 now under way, the prospect of penalty shootouts looms large — and for good reason. The 2022 final between Argentina and France ended 3-3 after extra time, with Argentina eventually winning 4-2 on spot kicks to lift the trophy. As The Guardian reports, a single penalty can just as easily determine the outcome of a knockout match, making any marginal gain in technique potentially decisive.
So what does the evidence actually tell us about the best way to take a penalty?
Winning the Toss Matters More Than You Might Think
Research covering shootouts at the World Cup, European Championship and English domestic cups between 1970 and 2003 found that the team taking the first penalty won 60.5% of the time. A later study, which accounted for a 2003 rule change allowing the coin-toss winner to choose whether to go first or second, found that winning the toss itself was the bigger advantage — around 60% of toss winners went on to win the shootout, compared with a 51% win rate for teams that simply shot first.
Run-Up Length and Shot Placement
A 2020 paper by lead author Mikael Jamil, published in the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, analysed more than 1,700 penalties across four seasons from 2015-16 to 2018-19 in the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Serie A. A long run-up of more than six steps was associated with success in all four leagues. Short run-ups offered no significant advantage anywhere.
Interestingly, preferred shot placement varied by country. In the Premier League, shots down the middle were statistically linked to success, while in La Liga it was the bottom corners. Placement — using the inside of the foot — was the dominant technique in England and Italy, whereas power shots with the instep were more effective in Spain and Germany. Panenka-style chips were not found to be significantly successful in any league studied.
Power vs Accuracy
A 2002 study suggested that shots at around 75% of maximum power offered the highest success rate, striking a balance between the risks of being saved (too little power) and missing entirely (too much).
On shot height, research consistently shows that high shots are harder to save but more likely to miss — which is why most players at major tournaments tend to aim low, accepting a greater chance of a save in exchange for keeping the ball on target.
For the latest results and odds as the tournament progresses, check out our World Cup 2026 hub and keep an eye on the live standings.