Antonelli Heads the 2026 F1 Championship, But the Race Is Far From Over
With the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa-Francorchamps scheduled for 19 July, the 2026 Formula 1 season is approaching its halfway point — and the Drivers’ Championship is shaping up to be a proper contest.
Mercedes teenager Kimi Antonelli has been the standout performer so far, winning five of the first ten races and collecting seven podium finishes in total. The 19-year-old Italian is unsurprisingly the favourite in prediction markets, with Polymarket placing his probability of lifting the championship trophy at 58.7% as of mid-July, according to reporting by Casino.org.
However, his advantage at the top of the standings is a slender 25 points over teammate George Russell — a gap that can disappear in a single weekend. Russell’s win probability currently sits at roughly 19% on Polymarket, and Casino.org notes that his pricing has been notably less volatile than Antonelli’s throughout the season. That relative stability may reflect a more experienced, considered base of backers rather than sentiment-driven swings.
Ferrari’s pair also remain in the mix. Lewis Hamilton, the seven-time world champion now racing in red, saw his championship probability recorded at 13.1% on 14 July, off the back of four podium finishes in five races and a commanding win in Catalonia on 14 June — by more than 19 seconds. Charles Leclerc is also still in contention, adding further intrigue to the second half of the season.
Antonelli’s probability has proved highly sensitive to race results. Casino.org reports it ranged from as low as 5.3% to as high as 71.6% between January and early June, peaking after a fifth consecutive Grand Prix victory in Monaco. Since then, three winless races and a resurgence from Russell and the Ferrari drivers have pulled the market back.
Whether you follow the prediction markets casually or just enjoy tracking F1’s title picture, it is worth remembering these probabilities shift with every race weekend — and with seven or so rounds still to go, plenty can change.
For the latest developments in the world of motorsport and gaming, keep an eye on our casino news. If you’re new to understanding how sports prediction markets work, our guides section has you covered.
Gambling is for adults only — please play responsibly. Visit BeGambleAware for support. 18+